DC Violence Forecaster

My project for GGS 754 

George Mason University: Spring 2014

• The Model

• A user inputs (for Washington, DC):
• Today's temperature and windspeed
• Yesterday's murder and robbery counts
• The model outputs:
• A predicted amount of violent crime for today, with high and low ranges
• A comparison against a 485-day sample (January 1, 2013-April 30, 2014)
• A map of the most recent day matching the predicted amount of crime



 

• The above is only a non-functional image of the tool, the full, usable .xlsx is available upon request
• MAJOR CAVEATS
• The data in this model is 1/1/2009-4/30/2014; there is no current plan to update further
• This tool was created for academic purposes only; not designed for law enforcement use...yet

• The related maps

• Each map is the most recently occurring unique violent crime count in DC during 01 January 2013 - 30 April 2014 (485 days



03 March 2014: 1 crime (represents 0.4% of cases)



22 April 2014: 2 crimes (represents 0.4% of cases)

16 April 2014: 3 crimes (represents 1.9% of cases)

24 April 2014: 4 crimes (represents 1.4% of cases)

17 April 2014: 5 crimes (represents 4.9% of cases)

30 April 2014: 6 crimes (represents 6.8% of cases)

18 April 2014: 7 crimes (represents 9.3% of cases)

26 April 2014: 8 crimes (represents 9.3% of cases)

21 April 2014: 9 crimes (represents 9.1% of cases)

27 April 2014: 10 crimes (represents 9.3% of cases)

23 March 2014: 11 crimes (represents 9.3% of cases)

29 April 2014: 12 crimes (represents 10.1% of cases) 

23 April 2014: 13 crimes (represents 6.4% of cases)

01 March 2014: 14 crimes (represents 5.6% of cases)

29 December 2013: 15 crimes (represents 3.1% of cases)

18 December 2013: 16 crimes (represents 3.9% of cases)

22 December 2013: 17 crimes (represents 1.4% of cases)

03 October 2013: 18 crimes (represents 2.5% of cases)

12 November 2013: 19 crimes (represents 1.4% of cases)

01 January 2014: 20 crimes (represents 0.8% of cases)

11 January 2014: 21 crimes (represents 1.6% of cases)

20 July 2013: 22 crimes (represents 0.2% of cases)

19 October 2013: 23 crimes (represents 0.6% of cases)

03 August 2013: 26 crimes (represents 0.2% of cases)

• Courtesy of BAIR Analytics RAIDS Online